Archived Newsletters

Weekly Economic Update_5.27.2019

In this week’s recap: stocks decline as Wall Street adjusts its expectations about the potential duration of the U.S.-China trade dispute, and some retail giants post first-quarter earnings.

Weekly Economic Update

 

May 28, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks drifted lower last week as investors considered the possibility that the world’s two largest economies might take some time to resolve key trade issues.

The S&P 500 retreated 1.17%; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.29%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.69%. The concern over trade was felt elsewhere: the overseas developed markets benchmark, the MSCI EAFE, also lost 1.41% in five trading sessions.1,2

 

Market Waits for Further Trade Talk Cues

A compromise on tariffs between the U.S. and China did not seem forthcoming last week. Negotiations appeared stalled. Regardless, President Trump and Chinese President Xi are slated to meet at June’s G20 summit in Japan.

The Department of Commerce has effectively banned U.S. companies from doing business with Chinese tech giant Huawei, a major global player in 5G technology. Some analysts think China may respond with retaliatory measures.3 

 

Leading Retailers Report Earnings

Big-box stores and other major retail chains announced first-quarter results last week. While some traditional department store chains disappointed (Kohl’s, JC Penney, Nordstrom), Macy’s recorded its sixth straight quarter of comparable sales growth. Target reported a 10.8% jump in earnings in the first quarter, Walmart announced Q1 gains in earnings and revenue, and Urban Outfitters saw record sales in Q1.4,5

Any companies mentioned are for informational purposes only, and this should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of their securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance.

 

FINAL THOUGHT

As new chapters in the U.S.-China trade drama continue to unfold, remember that your investment approach is built around your long-term objectives and risk tolerance. There will always be day-to-day price changes; there will always be breaking news alerts. The disciplined, long-term investor stays the course through the ups and downs.

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


Young adults can potentially see significant auto insurance savings if their parents include them on their policy. That is permissible as long as the younger driver is under a certain age and either still living at home or living on a college campus.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The Conference Board’s latest monthly consumer confidence index.

Friday: May consumer spending numbers and May’s final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (another important measure of consumer confidence levels).

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 24, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Wednesday: Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), PVH (PVH)

Thursday: Costco (COST), Dell (DELL), Dollar General (DG), Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 24, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“The successful person knows how to put energy into time and how to draw success from time.”

DENIS WAITLEY

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

If I say, "everything I tell you is a lie," am I telling you the truth or a lie?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: Can you name two perennial vegetables? (That is, vegetables that don’t need to be replanted and can live on to produce in a future growing season?)

ANSWER: Asparagus and rhubarb.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [5/24/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/24/19]

3 - cnbc.com/2019/05/21/tech-stocks-are-feeling-the-pain-but-may-emerge-better-off-after-trade-war.html [5/21/19]

4 - seekingalpha.com/article/4265991-q1-2019-u-s-retail-scorecard-may-21-update [5/21/19]

5 - just-style.com/news/us-q1-in-brief-ross-stores-l-brands-target-corp_id135965.aspx [5/24/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [5/24/19]

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/24/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [5/24/19]

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/24/19]

 


Weekly Economic Update_5.20.2019

In this week’s recap: tariffs and U.S.-China trade tensions once again become the talk of Wall Street, and U.S. stocks end up lower, week-over-week.

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

May 20, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks fell sharply at the start of last week over trade tensions, then recovered with help from strong earnings and indications that U.S.-China trade talks would continue. Even so, the major indices had a down week. The S&P 500 lost 0.76%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.69%.

In contrast, the MSCI EAFE benchmark for international stocks rose 0.19%.1-2

 

THE LATEST TRADE DEVELOPMENTS

A broad selloff occurred Monday after China announced it would respond to increased U.S. tariffs by boosting its own import taxes on $60 billion of U.S. products. Friday morning, the Street breathed a sigh of relief as the Trump administration decided to delay 25% tariffs planned for imported cars and car parts; they had been slated to take effect on May 18. Just hours later, President Trump announced an end to U.S. tariffs on metals coming from Canada and Mexico.

At midweek, Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin told reporters that he expected the U.S. to resume trade negotiations with China in “the near future.”3-5 

 

Earnings Season Winds Down

The first-quarter earnings scorecard is nearly complete, as more than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual Q1 results.

Stock market analytics firm FactSet notes that 76% of these firms have beaten consensus earnings-per-share estimates. Overall earnings for S&P 500 components have surpassed expectations by 5.4%. Both of these percentages are above 5-year averages.6

 

FINAL THOUGHT

The market is quite sensitive to trade developments at the moment, and it is unclear whether this will be a short-term trend or a long-term influence on prices. While the U.S. prepares its next moves, China is also preparing its response to any new U.S. tariffs, which could include manipulating its currency.

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


A small, but growing, percentage of companies now offer student debt assistance as an employee benefit. If you are looking for a new job and have outstanding education debt, research whether a potential employer can help you pay down your student loan balance.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Tuesday: The April existing home sales report from the National Association of Realtors.

Wednesday: Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting.

Thursday: April new home sales figures from the Census Bureau.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 17, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: AutoZone (AZO), Home Depot (HD), Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom (JWN)

Wednesday: Analog Devices (ADI), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT)

Thursday: Best Buy (BBY), Intuit (INTU), TD Bank (TD)

Friday: Foot Locker (FL)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 17, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“Every great mistake has a halfway moment, a split second when it can be recalled and perhaps remedied.”

PEARL S. BUCK

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

Can you name two perennial vegetables? (That is, vegetables that don’t need to be replanted and can live on to produce in a future growing season?)

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: Name three words in everyday English that begin with the letters “dw.”

ANSWER: Any three of these five words will do: dwell, dwelling, dwarf, dweeb, and dwindle.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [5/17/19]

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/17/19]

3 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/tough-talk-from-china-leaves-trade-talks-with-u-s-in-limbo-idUSKCN1SN207 [5/17/19]

4 - marketwatch.com/story/mnuchin-says-he-expects-to-go-to-beijing-to-continue-trade-talks-in-the-near-future-2019-05-15 [5/15/19]

5 - npr.org/2019/05/17/724357441/u-s-to-lift-tariffs-on-canadas-and-mexico-s-steel-and-aluminum [5/17/19]

6 - insight.factset.com/market-punished-sp-500-companies-reporting-negative-eps-surprises-in-q1 [5/17/19]

 

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [5/17/19]

   

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/17/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [5/17/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/17/19]

 


Weekly Economic Update_5.13.2019

In this week’s recap: domestic and international stocks sell off as higher tariffs go into effect for Chinese goods coming to the U.S., while the wave of notable initial public offerings continues.

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

May 13, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

As we noted recently, Wall Street has a wandering eye. Last week, it focused on the new tariff threats in the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute. Stocks fell across five trading sessions: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.12%; the S&P 500, 2.18%; the Nasdaq Composite, 3.03%. International stocks also fell: the MSCI EAFE index declined 3.06%. 

Earnings and big-name initial public offerings mattered little last week. Traders were more concerned about how consumers and corporations might be affected by higher import taxes in future quarters.1,2

 

TARIFFS INCREASE

At 12:01 am on Friday, duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese products coming to the U.S. rose from 10% to 25%. Just days earlier, President Trump had tweeted that the U.S. might also tax another $325 billion of Chinese imports, mainly consumer goods.

While the proposed new taxes might take months to implement, institutional investors reacted negatively to this information, perceiving that trade talks were stalled.3,4 

 

FINAL THOUGHT

A few weeks ago, market watchers noted the huge number of initial public offerings anticipated for 2019. One well-known tech firm completed its IPO on Friday, and the wave of tech IPOs is still building. According to research firm CB Insights, the average stock market valuation of the venture-capital-backed tech companies going public this year is $9.6 billion.

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


Getting married? Think about whether you want to keep your finances separate or create some joint investment and bank accounts. If you want a joint investment account, you will need to agree on the investment style.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Wednesday: April retail sales figures from the Census Bureau.

Friday: The University of Michigan’s preliminary May consumer sentiment index, a measure of consumer confidence.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 10, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

Tuesday: Agilent (A), Ralph Lauren (RL)

Wednesday: Alibaba (BABA), Cisco (CSCO), Macy’s (M)

Thursday: Applied Materials (AMAT), Nvidia (NVDA), Walmart (WMT)

Friday: Deere & Co. (DE)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 10, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“The possible’s slow fuse is lit by the imagination.”

EMILY DICKINSON

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

Name three words in everyday English that begin with the letters “dw.”

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: There are two friends: one always goes to sleep as the other wakes up, and vice versa. They never see one another. What are they?

ANSWER: Night and day.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - wsj.com/market-data [5/10/19]

 

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/10/19]

3 - cnn.com/2019/05/10/business/china-us-tariffs-trade/index.html [5/10/19]

4 - cnbc.com/2019/05/07/if-trump-slaps-china-with-all-the-tariffs-threatened-it-could-be-the-us-consumer-that-pays.html [5/7/19]

5 - nytimes.com/interactive/2019/05/09/business/dealbook/tech-ipos-uber.html [5/9/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

wsj.com/market-data [5/10/19]

 

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/10/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield [5/10/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/10/19]

 


Weekly Economic Update_5.06.2019

In this week’s recap: the Federal Reserve stands pat on interest rates, key indicators show strength, and stocks end the week little changed.

Weekly Economic Update

 

 

May 6, 2019

 

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks were up and down last week, and the three major benchmarks ended up little changed after five trading days. The S&P 500 rose 0.20% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.14%.

The MSCI EAFE index, a benchmark for international stocks, declined 0.21%.1-2

 

The Fed Emphasizes Patience

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its May meeting. Its May 1 policy statement noted “solid” job growth and economic activity, but only tame inflation pressure.

While the Fed was not expected to make a move, some investors wondered if its latest policy statement might hint at the possibility of a rate cut later this year. No such hint appeared. Fed chair Jerome Powell told the media Wednesday that “we don’t see a strong reason for moving in one direction or the other.”3

 

Indications of a Thriving Economy

Employers added 263,000 net new jobs in April. Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast a gain of 190,000. The jobless rate fell to 3.6% last month, the lowest in half a century.

This better-than-expected employment snapshot comes on the heels of a first-quarter GDP reading that surprised to the upside. In another bit of good news, personal spending rose an impressive 0.9% in March.4-5

 

Final Thought

On Wednesday and Thursday, stocks fell in the wake of the Fed policy statement. Friday, they more or less recouped their losses after the impressive April jobs report. Ups and downs like these come with the territory when you invest; the key is to stay patient and think long term instead of short term.

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
 

 


If you are young and want to make financial progress out of college, consider starting your career in a metro area where housing and living expenses are relatively low. Some of the most “exciting” cities to live and work in are also some of the priciest, with their millennial and Gen Y residents deeply in debt.

 

 

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Friday: The April Consumer Price Index, monitoring monthly and annual inflation.

Source: Econoday / MarketWatch Calendar, May 3, 2019

The Econoday and MarketWatch economic calendars list upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. Econoday Inc. is a technology and information company providing data and analysis for the financial industry, participants in the financial community, and individual investors. MarketWatch, a financial information website, is a subsidiary of Dow Jones & Company, a property of News Corp. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts are also subject to revision. The release of data may be delayed without notice for a variety of reasons, including the shutdown of the government agency or change at the private institution that handles the material.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Tyson Foods (TSN)

Tuesday: Allergan (AGN), Anheuser-Busch (BUD), Lyft (LYFT)

Wednesday: Green Dot (GDOT), Hostess Brands (TWNK), Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Thursday: AXA Equitable Holdings (EQH), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), News Corp. (NWSA)

Friday: Enbridge (ENB), Marriott International (MAR), Viacom (VIA)

Source: Morningstar.com, May 3, 2019

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

 

 

“Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.”

RALPH WALDO EMERSON

 

 

 

 

 

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

There are two friends: one always goes to sleep as the other wakes up, and vice versa. They never see one another. What are they?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: It walks on four legs in the morning, two legs at noon, and three legs in the evening. What is it?

ANSWER: A human. A baby crawls on all fours, then walks on two legs as an adult, and uses two legs and a cane when old.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

Know someone who could use information like this?
Please feel free to send us their contact information via phone or email. (Don’t worry – we’ll request their permission before adding them to our mailing list.)

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - markets.wsj.com/usoverview [5/3/19] 

2 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [5/3/19]

3 - bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/fomc-meeting-recap-april-may-2019 [5/1/19]

4 - nytimes.com/2019/05/03/business/economy/jobs-report-april.html [5/3/19]

5 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [5/3/19]

CHART CITATIONS:

markets.wsj.com/usoverview [5/3/19]

 

quotes.wsj.com/index/SPX/historical-prices [5/3/19]

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

 

treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [5/3/19]

 

 


Monthly Economic Update_5.2019

In this month’s recap: the S&P 500 returns to record territory, key economic indicators show strength, oil continues its ascent, and existing home sales decline.

Monthly Economic Update

 

 

May 2019

 

THE MONTH IN BRIEF

Wall Street shifted its focus from trade to earnings in April. On that front, the news was good: through April 26, first-quarter results for S&P 500 firms had beaten expectations by 5.3%, a bit better than the historical average of 4.8%. A strong first-quarter gross domestic product reading and solid consumer spending and hiring numbers did much to quell worries about the economy slowing. Existing home sales retreated again; mortgage rates went north again. Oil prices rose. Bullish sentiment was palpable.1

 

 

 

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH

Statistically speaking, economists and investors found much to like while looking at the latest round of fundamental indicators.

The first quarter had been a good one: the federal government’s initial estimate of economic growth in that period was 3.2%, far above the 2.2% of Q4 and the 2.3% consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by MarketWatch. In March alone, consumer spending increased 0.9%, and retail sales improved 1.6%.2,3

Unemployment remained at 3.8% in March (and the U-6 jobless rate, which factors in the underemployed, was 7.3% for another month). Nonfarm payrolls grew by a net 196,000 jobs in the third month of the year, which was a nice rebound from the anemic 33,000 gain for February.3

The Institute for Supply Management’s twin purchasing manager indexes, monthly gauges of U.S. service sector and manufacturing sector activity, were well above 50. (When these indices fall below 50, the sectors are judged to be contracting rather than growing.) ISM’s service sector PMI was 56.1 in March; its factory sector PMI, at 55.3.3

The most-watched U.S. consumer confidence index, maintained by the Conference Board, rose 5.0 points in April to a notably high mark of 129.2. The University of Michigan’s monthly index measuring household sentiment also rose, gaining 0.3 points to reach 97.2 for April.2

Yearly inflation picked up from 1.5% to 1.9% in March, but this mostly reflected a jump in gasoline and electricity costs as well as rents. This left annualized inflation near the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2.0%.3,4

 

GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH

On April 10, the European Union extended the deadline for the Brexit to October 31, temporarily assuaging fears that the United Kingdom would leave the E.U. without any divorce deal. In announcing this agreement, European Council President Donald Tusk warned U.K. leaders, “Please do not waste this time.” The extension has actually been called a “flextension,” as the U.K. is free to leave the E.U. at any time before Halloween if its Parliament can finally agree to pass a withdrawal deal.5

As April ended, a U.S. delegation landed in Beijing to further trade talks with China, intent to make “substantial” progress toward a truce in the tariff dispute between the two countries. While Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin told Bloomberg on April 30 that an agreement on trade enforcement methods was “close to done,” there was still much headway to be made on other issues. China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers index was close to the contraction line of 50 in April, coming in at 50.1. Elsewhere in the region, Taiwan’s economy expanded 1.7% in Q1, but officials in Hong Kong announced its economy was slowing; factory output in Japan and South Korea also fell during the year ending in March.6

 

WORLD MARKETS

Gains were widespread last month, with two benchmarks rising more than 5%: Germany’s DAX rose 7.10%, and Singapore’s STI, 5.83%. Other major advances: France’s CAC 40, 4.41%; Taiwan’s TSE 50, 4.16%; Japan’s Nikkei 225, 4.12%; Spain’s IBEX 35, 3.57%; the FTSEurofirst 300, 3.06%; Mexico’s Bolsa, 3.04%; Canada’s TSX Composite, 2.97%; South Korea’s Kospi, 2.94%; the MSCI EAFE, 2.53%; Australia’s All Ordinaries, 2.50%; Russia’s Micex, 2.49%.7,8

There were only two notable retreats last month. China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.40%, and Argentina’s Merval dove 13.86%.7

 

COMMODITIES MARKETS

April saw five major gains among the marquee commodities: unleaded gasoline climbed 8.89%, WTI crude oil rose 5.98%, platinum added 5.34%, heating oil advanced 5.12%, and cocoa improved 4.64%. Where did WTI crude finish the month on the New York Mercantile Exchange? At $63.80 per barrel.9

The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.23% in April, reaching 97.50 at the April 30 close. April retreats included gold, 0.40%; corn, 0.84%; cotton, 0.85%; silver, 0.96%; copper, 0.99%; coffee, 3.07%; natural gas, 3.59%; soybeans, 4.81%; sugar, 7.18%; wheat, 8.87%. Gold was worth $1,285.40 on the NYMEX’s Commodity Exchange (COMEX) at the April 30 closing bell; silver, $14.90.9,10

 

REAL ESTATE

First, the bad news. Existing home sales declined again. They were down 4.9% for March, according to the National Association of Realtors, falling right at the start of the spring home buying season. (They were also down 5.4% year-over-year.)11

Mortgage rates crept back up. The average interest rate on the 30-year, fixed-rate home loan, per Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, reached 4.20% on April 25; it had been 4.08% back on March 28. Average interest on the 15-year, fixed-rate home loan also rose from 3.57% to 3.64% in that timeframe.12

Now, the good news. New home sales picked up in March, reaching an 18-month peak and increasing 4.5% month-over-month. Developers and builders appeared to be slashing prices, as the Census Bureau said that the median new home price fell 9.7% in March to a 2-year low of $302,700. Additionally, the NAR pending home sales index, a gauge of housing contract activity, rose 3.8% for March after a 1.0% February dip.2,11

[A 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is a conventional home loan of below $484,350 that meets the lending requirements of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but it is not a mortgage guaranteed or insured by any government agency. Private mortgage insurance, or PMI, is required for any conventional loan with less than a 20% down payment.]

 

 

 

T I P   O F   T H E   M O N T H
 

 


After a significant life event, such as a marriage or the birth of a child, it is smart to review your insurance coverage. You may need more (or less) coverage or even an extra kind of insurance.

 

 

 

LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD

The three major U.S. stock benchmarks all advanced nicely in April – in fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at record peaks late last month. Nearly 50% of S&P 500 firms had reported Q1 results through the end of April, and those collective earnings results helped all three indices rise 2.5% or more on the month. The S&P ended April at 2,945.83; the Nasdaq, at 8,107.77; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, at 26,592.91. Beyond those benchmarks, the S&P Smallcap 600 added 3.81% to finish the month at 975.06; the CBOE volatility index lost 4.16% in April, settling at 13.12 at the April 30 close.13,14

MARKET INDEX

Y-T-D CHANGE

1-MO CHANGE

2018

DJIA

+14.00

+2.56

-5.63

NASDAQ

+22.19

+4.90

-3.88

S&P 500

+17.51

+3.93

-6.24

       

BOND YIELD

4/30 RATE

1 MO AGO

1 YR AGO

10 YR TREASURY

2.51

2.41

2.95

 

Sources: barchart.com, wsj.com, treasury.gov – 4/30/1914,15,16

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year Treasury real yield = projected return on investment, expressed as a percentage, on the U.S. government’s 10-year bond.

 

Wall Street is entering May after enjoying some April tailwinds. The earnings parade is expected to wind down this month, and as May plays out, bulls may turn their attention back to trade matters – or to something else entirely. Will stocks lose momentum at that point? It is anyone’s guess. Fundamental economic indicators are, for the most part, still strong. Key housing indicators aside, measurements of hiring, consumer spending, and business activity are holding steady. Remember that your investing approach reflects your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.

 

 

 

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   M O N T H

 

 

“Everything you can imagine is real.

PABLO PICASSO

 

 

 

UPCOMING RELEASES

Besides more earnings calls, here is what the news stream offers for the rest of May: April’s Producer Price Index (5/9), the April Consumer Price Index (5/10), a new monthly retail sales report from the Census Bureau (5/15), April housing starts (5/16), the University of Michigan’s initial May consumer sentiment index (5/17), the latest existing home sales figures from the NAR (5/21), April new home sales (5/23), the May Conference Board consumer confidence index (5/28), April pending home sales and the federal government’s second estimate of Q1 economic growth (5/30), and then, the final May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and the April personal spending report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (5/31).

 

 

 

T H E  M O N T H L Y   R I D D L E

 

 

Small, soft, and cuddly, I’ll pull on your heart. I share only my last name with a real-live animal who might tear you apart. What am I?

 

LAST MONTH’S RIDDLE: It is filled with garb, and the price is free; you can take whatever you like, and return what you don't need. What is it?

ANSWER: A closet.

 

 

 

«representativename» may be reached at «representativephone» or «representativeemail»
«representativewebsite»
 

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This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs, or expenses. Investors cannot invest directly in indices. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The S&P SmallCap 600 Index is a stock market index established by Standard & Poor’s. It covers roughly the small-cap range of US stocks, using a capitalization-weighted index. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. The DAX 30 is a Blue-Chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) is a capitalization-weighted stock market index that is regarded as the benchmark index for the Singapore stock market. The CAC-40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. The FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of stocks comprises 50 companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange developed by Taiwan Stock Exchange in collaboration with FTSE. Nikkei 225 (Ticker: ^N225) is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). The Nikkei average is the most watched index of Asian stocks. The IBEX 35 is the benchmark stock market index of the Bolsa de Madrid, Spain’s principal stock exchange. The FTSEurofirst 300 Index comprises the 300 largest companies ranked by market capitalization in the FTSE Developed Europe Index. The Mexican Stock Exchange, commonly known as Mexican Bolsa, Mexbol, or BMV, is the only stock exchange in Mexico. The S&P/TSX Composite Index is an index of the stock (equity) prices of the largest companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) as measured by market capitalization. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or KOSPI is the major stock market index of South Korea, representing all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. The MSCI EAFE Index is an equity index which captures large-cap and mid-cap representation across 21 developed markets around the world. Established in January 1980, the All Ordinaries is the oldest index of shares in Australia. It is made up of the share prices for 500 of the largest companies listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. The MICEX 10 Index is an unweighted price index that tracks the ten most liquid Russian stocks listed on MICEX-RTS in Moscow. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded at the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The MERVAL Index (MERcado de VALores, literally Stock Exchange) is the most important index of the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The U.S. Dollar Index measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six currencies. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

1 - factset.com/hubfs/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_042619.pdf [4/26/19]

 

2 - marketwatch.com/tools/calendars/economic [4/30/19]

 

 

3 - investing.com/economic-calendar/ [4/30/19]

 

4 - apnews.com/73c7e47b547a44d2872fbbe4e0107926 [4/10/19]

 

5 - euronews.com/2019/04/11/brexit-delay-does-the-extension-to-october-change-anything [4/11/19]

 

6 - bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-30/china-manufacturing-gauge-unexpectedly-declines-in-april [4/30/19]

 

7 - markets.on.nytimes.com/research/markets/worldmarkets/worldmarkets.asp [4/30/19]

 

8 - quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices [4/30/19]

9 - money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [4/30/19]

 

10 - marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical [4/30/19]

 

11 - consumeraffairs.com/news/new-home-sales-surge-in-march-while-existing-home-sales-decline-042419.html [4/24/19]

 

12 - freddiemac.com/pmms/archive.html [4/30/19]

 

13 - marketwatch.com/story/stock-index-futures-edge-lower-as-investors-await-earnings-deluge-fed-meeting-2019-04-29 [4/29/19]

  

14 - barchart.com/stocks/indices?viewName=performance [4/30/19]

15 - markets.wsj.com/us [12/31/18] 

 

16 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldAll [4/30/19]

 


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